Friday, December 12, 2008

Short-Term Forex Technical Outlook: NZD/USD

The technical outlook for the NZDUSD remains bearish as risk aversion remains a dominant theme in the financial markets, and the pair is likely to move lower over the near-term as it continues to hold a downward trend.

Currency Pair: NZD/USD
Chart: 60 Min Charts
Short-Term Bias:
Bearish

Analysis

The technical outlook for the NZDUSD remains bearish as risk aversion remains a dominant theme in the financial markets, and the pair is likely to move lower over the near-term as it continues to hold a downward trend. After peaking to a high of 0.6132 in November, the pair slipped to a low of 0.5196 on 11/20, and looks to be finding short-term resistance around 0.5550-60 (38.2% Fib retracement level). The lack of momentum to push higher suggests that investors remain bearish against the pair, and I anticipate the kiwi-dollar to face increased selling pressures over the following week as demands for carry trades falter. Over the remainder of the trading session, the divergence from the 120 SMA should lead the kiwi-dollar lower, and we may see the pair work its way down towards 0.5400 over the next few hours.

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